Key Takeaways
What are the similarities to April?
The recent weeks’ crypto sentiment, holders facing unrealized losses, and the price charts, all share a likeness to March-April.
What are the chances of another market bottom?
It looks 50-50. A convincing argument for both the bull and bear cases can be made. It all depends on macro conditions and crypto investor sentiment in the next 3-6 months.
Has Bitcoin [BTC] entered a bear phase, or was the recent reset to just under $100k a bull market thing?
The crash on the 10th of October swayed the market sentiment into firmly bearish territory, where it has not recovered from since.
As a result, a lot of social media engagement has been bearish.
Whale selling and buyer exhaustion were seen as reasons why bears have the upper hand. Yet, AMBCrypto explored why the Bitcoin M2 decoupling does not mean the cycle top is in.
April reminiscences and another potential BTC market bottom
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index was at 29 on the 10th of November. It fell to a low of 20 just a couple of days earlier, a value of 20 that was last seen in mid-April.
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
At the start of 2025, Bitcoin was trading within a range. It lost this range in March, sinking to $74.5k in April before rebounding higher.
In recent months, too, BTC traded within a range that it lost in recent weeks.
Comparing the sentiment and price action, if history were to repeat, we could have another month of bearish price action before a potential recovery.
Short-term holders deepen losses
The Unrealized Profit/Loss Margin showed holders at a loss, but the magnitude was not as heavy as the holders faced in March and April. BTC was also trading significantly below its realized price, which is at $115.1k right now
If the aforementioned scenario plays out like the one in April, it suggests that the downtrend BTC is on right now could go a lot lower than just $98.9k.
There are similarities to the current sentiment, price action, and unrealized holder losses to March and April, but similarities do not mean the previous situation will be exactly repeated. Yet, it is something to keep an eye on.
Bull cycle still lacks the euphoric blow-off
The Power Law model showed that the current bull run has not seen an explosive rally that tended to mark the previous cycles’ endings. Called a blow-off top, a phase of pure market euphoria, has not yet been seen.
Maybe this time is different, and we won’t see such a phase.
Or maybe the macro picture needs more time to align and send crypto flying.
At this point, both possibilities seem likely, which helps explain the fear and uncertainty in the market.