Journalist
Posted:
- BTC STH MVRV has retested a key resistance level and could spark a rally if it breaks the hurdle.
- However, the recent upside momentum weakened at the $65K resistance on the price charts.
Data from the chain suggested that Bitcoin [BTC] was retesting a crucial price resistance which, if broken, could fetch the asset at a huge price collection.
According to on-chain analyst Checkmate, the short-term holder’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio once again tested the 155-day moving average (MA).
Historically, a move above the MA has led to “a decent rally,” the analyst said.
Source: Checkonchain
What’s next for BTC?
For context, the MVRV ratio is a valuation metric to measure whether BTC is overpriced or undervalued. MVRV values above 1 indicate that most holders have unrealized gains.
On the contrary, a value lower than 1 indicates that short-term investors invest at a loss on average. This always happens during price consolidation and indicates that BTC is undervalued.
Aside from the BTC valuation, the STH MVRV is a support and resistance level when tracked using the 155-day MA. At the time of writing, the metric’s value was moving towards 1 and was about to cross the 155-day MA.
The chart notes that the recent instances of the STH MVRH crossing above the 155-day MA occurred in the first quarter of 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2023. In both periods, BTC soared, tipping short-term investors to profits.
As such, a trend repeat could set BTC up for a likely run. If the bulls clear resistance and rise, BTC could target $66,000 and $70,000. marked Checkmate.
“If the bulls have their way, and we set a weekly higher high of ~$65.3k, I would reasonably expect an attempt at the ATH.”
Source: Checkonchain
The on-chain analyst added,
“Short-term holders will make a statistically large profit between $66.1k and $70.8k, so I’ll be watching their profit-taking behavior along the way.”
However, on price charts, the lower time frame showed subdued momentum and a key hurdle at $65,000, as illustrated by trader Skew.
The trader marked Stalled RSI and weak flows are the reasons why BTC could struggle to clear $65,000 in the near term. If so, the trader expects that BTC could drop to $61,000.
Source: Skew/X
