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Well-known macro analyst Alex Krüger states that Bitcoin is “very likely” in a super cycle. Krüger expressed his perspective via
A Bitcoin supercycle is a theoretical phase in which the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise extraordinarily, surpassing traditional boom-and-bust cycles. This concept implies a longer period of growth, fueled by greater mainstream adoption, leading to a significantly stronger and more sustainable upward trajectory than the typical four-year halving cycle that Bitcoin has historically followed.
Is Bitcoin in a super cycle?
Regarding President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-Bitcoin U-turn and his plan to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Krüger noted: “Do yourself a favor and stop comparing this cycle to previous cycles. Bitcoin is most likely in a super cycle. The crypto industry just experienced the most dramatic change in history, a fundamentally driven 180-degree turn,” the analyst said.
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Krüger also referred to the rapid evolution of the Bitcoin and crypto sector, noting that within weeks it has gone from “a barely legal pariah detested by the state to one of the top industries embraced by the state” – a change that he describes as “so extreme it is difficult to find comparable things in modern times.”
Drawing parallels with historical financial shifts, Krüger highlighted the transformative impact of the 1970s on gold. “Maybe gold in the 1970s is one of them. The 1970s were a transformative decade for gold. Nixon’s end of the Gold Standard in 1971, which dismantled Bretton Woods, sent gold prices soaring from $35 an ounce to $850 in 1981,” he explained.
Krüger also addressed the timing of Bitcoin’s potential peak, suggesting that expecting a major local top around March is reasonable based on his previous analyses. “This would be highly dependent on the rate of increase, funding rates and the wider economy. But you shouldn’t equate a big local top with the start of the bear market,” he noted.
While he acknowledged the possibility of a bear market, he emphasized that “the conditions for that are not yet in place. It is also too early to expect a top. Bitcoin bull runs always last many months. It has only been 33 days since Trump unleashed the Kraken.”
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Krüger emphasized the precarious nature of market sentiment and added a cautionary note: “The moment you all finally believe what I just wrote, it will [be] the top.” With this statement, Krüger underlines the psychological factors that often influence market dynamics, especially the collective belief in market peaks.
X user Paradox Parrot (@Paradoxparrot) commented on Krüger’s claim, saying: “Agreed. But ‘this time it’s different’ is a good way to travel back down.” In response, Krüger acknowledged the cyclical skepticism surrounding altcoins and stated: “Certainly. Alts will be traveling around for most of it. It’s the nature of the beast. Please note: this time has already been proven different several times on many levels. I’ve been anticipating and discussing that in detail here since mid-2023. By the way, a tour for two reasons. A) lack of fundamentally driven demand. And more importantly, B) the illiquidity (which is also why they rise so vertically).”
Despite Krüger’s optimistic view, not all experts agree with the supercycle hypothesis. Chris Burnsike, Partner at Placeholder VC, offered a contrasting take on […] Buying the idea of a supercycle never sells a return. Just ask anyone who never sold in 2021.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $98,287.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
