Key Takeaways
Why is Bitcoin struggling to find a bottom?
Traders are holding back, waiting for $17 billion Bitcoin options volatility to settle, or stocks to overheat, leaving a lot of capital on the sidelines.
What’s the near-term outlook for BTC?
Bitcoin could see further retracement and elevated volatility, especially with macro pressures and the $17 billion options expiry looming.
Investor appetite is shifting, and Bitcoin [BTC] is feeling the pressure.
On the macro side, the U.S. stock market is ripping. All three major indices [$DJI, $NASDAQ, and $SPX] have hit fresh all-time highs, signaling money chasing legacy markets post-FOMC.
Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield slipped to a quarterly low of 4.01% in mid-September, hinting that money’s chasing safer bonds while risk-on bets like Bitcoin cool off. In short, BTC’s bid wall is weakening.
Source: Trading Economics
Despite the 25 bps rate cut, investor conviction in BTC hasn’t returned.
Meanwhile, stablecoin supply has exploded from $204 billion in January to $308 billion in September. That’s over $100 billion in dry powder still sitting on the sidelines, ready to rotate into BTC once risk-on flows return.
The question: When does the rotation hit? Is the market waiting on a cleaner entry, a deeper rate cut, overheated stocks, or the $17 billion BTC options expiry to clear before FOMO kicks back in?
Bitcoin eyes max pain ahead of massive options expiry
The options market is seeing heavy activity ahead of the upcoming expiry.
There is a total Open Interest (OI) of 152,549 contracts, reflecting strong participation from traders. Of these, 86,997 are call options while 65,552 are puts, producing a Put/Call Ratio of 0.75, pointing to a mildly bullish bias.
The notional value of all outstanding contracts is approximately $17.04 billion, showing significant capital at stake. Notably, the max pain price is set at $110,000, where Bitcoin could be drawn as expiry approaches.
Source: Deribit
In short, all these factors explain why Bitcoin hasn’t bottomed yet.
Traders are staying sidelined, waiting for a cleaner entry, options FUD to shake out, or stocks to overheat, keeping significant dry powder off the market. Until one of these triggers hits, BTC’s October replay looks tough.
Consequently, a deeper retracement is firmly on the table, with volatility likely to remain elevated as the market digests these macro and options-driven pressures.