- Bitcoin’s response to the latest FOMC report highlighted its sensitivity to shifts in US monetary policy and macroeconomic data
- Key resistance at $106,000 and support at $102,750 set the stage for Bitcoin’s next move as FOMC decision looms
The Federal Open Market Committee This meeting is one of the most anticipated events on the financial calendar and has a major impact on the markets. Bitcoin, known for its sensitivity to macroeconomic events, is at a crucial juncture as traders prepare for potential volatility ahead of the meeting.
Unpacking the FOMC’s influence on Bitcoin
The FOMC plays a critical role in determining U.S. monetary policy through decisions on interest rates and liquidity measures. For Bitcoin, these rallies often bring sharp market reactions. An aggressive position that raises rates tends to strengthen the US dollar, creating headwinds for Bitcoin. Conversely, signaling rate cuts or pauses, a dovish tone generally weakens the dollar, giving Bitcoin a boost as traders look for higher-yielding assets.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has reacted strongly to FOMC announcements, with increased volatility in the hours and days following the decisions. While markets wait for clarity, traders are looking to key levels for guidance.
Bitcoin’s price action and levels in pictures
To anticipate how Bitcoin might perform ahead of the FOMC meeting, analyzing its recent price trends could provide us with valuable insights.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin was trading just below $106,000 – a key resistance level. A breakout here could see a rally to $110,000, while strong support was around $102,750, which would ease the downtrend. The moving averages showed a bullish stance, with the 50-day moving average above the 200-day average.
However, trading volumes have remained subdued recently – a sign of a cautious market.
Source: TradingView
On the daily chart, the MACD indicator showed positive momentum, indicating a bullish continuation.
Still, traders are wary of a divergence that could signal weakening momentum. At the time of writing, sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, was optimistic. However, the country remains vulnerable to hawkish surprises from the FOMC.
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s price tested significant levels ahead of the FOMC meeting. While immediate resistance was at $106,000, with a break opening the door to $110,000, support at $102,750 could act as protection. All this while $100,000 remains a psychological anchor for traders.
Potential Post-FOMC Scenarios
In the run-up to the latest FOMC reportthe price of Bitcoin saw notable fluctuations. Initially, Bitcoin rose to an all-time high of around $109,356.
However, after the FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve predicted fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than expected, the price of BTC fell by almost 15%, to around $92,800. This downturn was influenced by the Fed’s hawkish stance and the subsequent strengthening of the US dollar, which often has an inverse effect on Bitcoin’s value.
The FOMC’s decision will chart Bitcoin’s immediate price. A hawkish surprise could put pressure on Bitcoin, pushing it below its key support, while a mild twist could push it past resistance. A neutral stance could see Bitcoin consolidate within its press-time range as traders wait for further data.
Macro forces at play
Outside of the FOMC, Bitcoin’s trajectory is intertwined with broader market forces.
For example, the US Dollar Index continues to act as a counterweight. A strengthening dollar could dampen Bitcoin’s appeal, while stock market trends could further impact sentiment.
Source: TradingView
– Read Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction 2025-26
As the FOMC meeting approaches, traders should brace for potential volatility. Key levels like $106,000 and $102,750 will be key momentum indicators. By monitoring Bitcoin’s price action alongside broader macroeconomic factors, traders can better manage the uncertainty and take advantage of emerging opportunities.
Therefore, the stage is set for an eventful week in the cryptocurrency market.
