Journalist
Posted:
- The rising Korean Premium Index showed bullish sentiment among retail traders.
- The lack of buying volume in recent days showed buyer exhaustion.
Bitcoin [BTC] trended even higher in February and managed to break past the psychological round number resistance at $50,000.
This filled the market with bullish conviction, as evidenced by the rising Open Interest behind BTC Coin glass data.
Yet another metric has moved higher, one that typically marks the local top for Bitcoin. The Bitcoin Korea Premium Index reached a high of 3.98% on February 16.
The short-term bullish enthusiasm is intense
The Korean crypto market has regulations against institutional investors. Therefore, it is largely made up of retailers, who may not be aware of the data available to institutions.
In a sense, the Korean market could be seen as the closest approximation of retailer sentiment.
Source: CryptoQuant
On January 12, the KPI peaked at 5.43% when BTC prices reached $42.8k. Ten days later the price was $39.5k. The recent increase in the KPI raised fears that another similar price drop could follow.
The Open Interest data in the lower time frames showed that market sentiment has been subdued over the past five days. Neither buyers nor sellers had a clear advantage, based on OI data from Coinalyse.
The formation of the Bitcoin range
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
Highlighted in purple was a range within which Bitcoin has traded over the past five days. It reached a range of $50.6k to $52.5k, and the midpoint at $51.5k has served as both support and resistance.
After the strong move earlier this month, Bitcoin bulls consolidated their gains. However, the falling OBV suggested that they might not have the power to sustain the rally further.
Source: Hyblok
AMBCrypto also analyzed Hyblock’s liquidation level data to understand where prices might move next. The Cumulative Liq Levels Delta was negative and has been negative for the past four days.
This showed that the number of short liquidations was greater than the long liquidation level.
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So prices would likely chase short liquidations first before any potential reversal would occur. In the North there were two major liquidation levels worth $180m and $211m, $53.1k and $52.8k respectively.
Bitcoin is expected to rise to this level, and possibly as high as $53.6k, before turning bearish and chasing long liquidations over the next two weeks.
