Bitcoin roared back this week and clawed its way to $48,207 – the highest point since early January. This fiery rise follows weeks of muted trading, fueled by concerns about institutional outflows and a post-ETF slide. But what causes this sudden surge? And can the digital dragon overcome its next hurdle?
Positive winds are filling Bitcoin’s sails
Several factors are driving Bitcoin’s recent rally:
- Spot ETF Momentum: The long-awaited launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January could finally deliver on its promise. The potential inflows and positive sentiment surrounding these new investment vehicles are generating interest.
- Halving horizon: The Bitcoin halving, scheduled for May 2024, threatens to be a big one. Historically, this event, which reduces the pace of new Bitcoin creation, has been associated with price increases, fueling investor optimism.
- Market Synergy: The S&P 500’s recent surge to record highs appears to be spilling over into the crypto market, creating a wave of positive momentum.
- Moon happiness? Bitcoin often experiences gains around the Chinese New Year, and this year is no exception. The ‘Year of the Dragon’, with its promising connotations, adds another layer of bullish sentiment.
- ETF Absorption of Selling Pressure: Several ETFs have absorbed over a billion dollars of Bitcoin selling pressure in recent weeks, pointing to underlying demand despite pre-ETF concerns.
Bitcoin currently trading at $47,335 on the daily chart: TradingView.com
But can Bitcoin slay the resistance dragon?
Although the outlook appears bright, challenges remain:
- Resistance at $48,500: Bitcoin is facing a crucial resistance level at $48,500. Breaking this barrier is the key to a potential new record.
- Post-ETF Sell-off: Despite the recent surge, Bitcoin remains below its pre-ETF highs, raising concerns about a possible sell-off after the initial excitement wears off.
- Volatility Reigns: Crypto remains a notoriously volatile asset, and predicting future price movements is fraught with problems.
Experts weigh in: Bitcoin at $52K
Sylvia Jablonski, CEO of Defiance ETFs, attributes the price increase to “recent inflows into spot ETFs, the prospect of the halving and overall market momentum.” However, she cautions that breaking through resistance levels is never guaranteed, and investors should approach any investment with caution.
Meanwhile, Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research and head of research at Matrixport, predicted a further rise in bitcoin prices using Elliott Wave theory, a technical study that assumes prices move in repeating wave patterns.
The idea states that price trends develop in five phases, with waves 1, 3 and 5 serving as ‘impulse waves’ that indicate the primary trend. Retracements between the impulsive price movements occur in waves two and four.
According to Thielen, BTC has entered the final, fifth impulsive phase of its uptrend, aiming to reach $52,000 by mid-March, after completing the wave 4 retracement and correcting to $38,500.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from TradingView
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