A widely followed crypto analyst is warning that most altcoins are in the midst of a serious downtrend that will ultimately leave them below their all-time highs forever.
In a new video update, crypto trader Benjamin Cowen tells According to its 787,000 YouTube subscribers, most altcoins are currently in a “severe decline” that is being overlooked due to the relative resilience of Bitcoin (BTC).
Cowen also notes that if Bitcoin were to fall, it would crush altcoins even worse.
“A lot of altcoins in the top 100 that are really declining right now and a lot of people are completely ignoring it… The only reason people are ignoring it is because Bitcoin is doing well, so it’s easy to discount. [altcoins]…
If you want exposure to the cryptoverse in the year before the halving, Bitcoin can often give you a decent amount of positive exposure while also minimizing your downside risk in the altcoin market. Some people think this means Bitcoin can’t fall – it can.
I mean, it went down in the second half of 2019, it even went down in the early part of the half-year of the previous cycle, so it can go down. It’s just that if the price drops, the altcoin market will likely go with it.”
According to Cowen, very few altcoins currently in existence will ever reach a new all-time high again.
“I think the altcoin market as a whole will recover. The question is not ‘will the altcoin market recover?’
In my mind it’s ‘will the altcoins be those people’ [dollar cost averaging]Will they recover?’ And maybe there’s one in ten, one in fifty or one in a hundred that sets new all-time highs, but a lot of those could just disappear.”
Cowen further notes that the next bull market could be fueled by a massive capitulation to BTC, which washes away weak hands before jumping back up.
“Even Bitcoin will probably bend the knee and we’ll have to figure out how low the secondary fear is before we really get that move into any kind of more sustained bull market.
There is one interesting thing to watch with Bitcoin over the past two cycles and that [is] what really started the bull market… The real move to record highs only came then [a] enormous capitulation fuse.”
Bitcoin is trading at $27,927 at the time of writing.
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