Former Bitmex CEO Arthur Hayes, who now runs a family office called Maelstrom, doesn’t see bitcoin reaching new highs this year, but is optimistic from 2024.
“I don’t think we’ll get $70,000 this year, I think we cross that barrier next year, then we’ll get the blow from above [2025], [2026] and then it’s Armageddon,” Hayes said on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, pointing to bitcoin’s 2024 halving as a major event.
As for his commentary on Armageddon, he explained that he was talking more about a social change, such as a great war. He pointed to quantitative easing and social discontent as two factors that would lead to such an event.
“It doesn’t have to be too simple, we just have this situation, we have a tinderbox with too much money, no confidence and people trying to fend for themselves,” Hayes said. He added that bitcoin would fall in this scenario as well.
Solving the US debt ceiling
When asked about the US debt ceiling, Hayes said it will be resolved according to the usual back and forth. But he argued that its timing could create waves in the market, claiming that financial disruptions typically happen in the fall.
“With the banking crisis — and you have the federal government issuing trillions of dollars in debt because they have to fund themselves — you’re basically putting together this powder keg of a situation that’s going to explode in Q3/Q4 of this year and so why do I ultimately think that it could be quite good for bitcoin. It’s going to be quite volatile on both the positive and negative sides,” he said.
As for Hayes’ own investment strategy during this time, he said that Maelstrom made a number of attempts related to ether staking and that it was scrutinizing the rise of NFTs on Bitcoin known as Ordinals.
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