Popular crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen warns that one macroeconomic data point could derail Bitcoin’s (BTC) breakout above $70,000.
Cows tells According to his 873,000 followers on the social media platform
The analyst points out that while Bitcoin has historically rallied during the fourth quarter of a halving year, the expected breakout wave could be delayed by months if BTC were to follow the monetary policy view by relying on macroeconomic data.
“BTC’s cyclical view says the price should rise in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The monetary policy view is downward (and then upward in early 2025).
While it made sense in March to let the cyclical view fade, now it’s more a question of waffling as to which view prevails.
If BTC can get above $70,000 with more than just a fuse, then it favors the prevailing cyclical view.
If BTC fails again at $70,000 (or just below) and goes back to $64,000, then the monetary policy view will likely prevail and the breakout will not occur until 2025.”
According to Cowen, BTC’s next big move could depend on US labor market data, which will be released on November 1.
“The most likely thing to determine the direction in the near term is the release of labor market data this week.”
Earlier this month, Cowen said Bitcoin is likely to witness bearish conditions if the US unemployment rate continues to rise to end the year. The analyst recently noted that investors will likely wait for the upcoming jobs report data before deciding whether to dive into BTC.
“The market will want to know if the recent drop in unemployment is a new trend, or still a stochastic move higher.”
Should labor market data disappoint, Cowen warns that this will put BTC in a position to witness a capitulation.
“BTC could see another quick dump (like in April and August this year), which would likely be completed in December.”
In April, BTC corrected by around 18% and retreated by as much as 25% in August.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $71,239, up almost 5% in the past day.
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