At the higher period of time, Bitcoin still seems to be in a bearish market with the assets that register a decrease of 21.7%, removed from his all time above $ 109,000 registered in January.
However, when it is somewhat zoomed in, it is seen that it is active in the past week a gradual and steady rebound rise by 6.8% to bring its actively closer to the psychological $ 90,000 with a current trading price that hangs above $ 85,000.
The last analysis From cryptoquant analyst Crypto then context offers for this cautious optimism. In a message “Why does this cycle feel so boring?”, Explained that, in contrast to earlier bull cycles with fast rallies and increasing interest of short -term participants, the current cycle seems to be in it.
Why the current cycle is different
An important indicator that supports the observation of Dan, is the remarkably lower percentage of Bitcoin that is held for a short duration (1 week to 1 month), which is a reflection of minimal involvement of newer market and participants in the market. Then this behavioral shift attributes to two primary structural changes. Firstly, the macro -economic environment.
In contrast to the aggressive liquidity injections and nearly-zero interest rates of the period of 2020-2021, the current market is confronted with tight liquidity and high interest rates, reducing the pace and scale of capital inflow. Secondly, the transition in market leadership is from retail traders to institutional investors.
The approval and growing acceptance of Bitcoin exchange-related funds (ETFs) have transformed the nature of capital movement into space, so that price movements are measured and incrementally measured.
As a result, the development of the market is more cautious, without missing the euphoria that is usually seen in earlier cycles. Then emphasized that although some statistics in chains can suggest a cyclustop, the current structure could indicate a more extensive and gradual market revolution instead.
He suggested that patience in the long term, instead of short -term speculation, can produce better results among these disorders, and notes:
In such times, most does not hind fast pumps – it understands the slower structure and patience to stay there.
Bitcoin on-chain statistics signal strength despite the unusual cycle
Support for this perspective in the longer term, another cryptoquant analyst Elcryptotavo noted That an important metric remains strong in the chain. According to his analysis, more than 70% of the Bitcoin supply in profit – a level remains historically associated with price stability.
This metric follows the percentage of circulating BTC with a cost basis below the current market price. A supply ratio that remains increased, in particular above 70%, has often served as a basis for further up -like momentum.
Elcryptotavo added that the next goal is to push this metric back to the level of 80%, that the Bullish Momentum would strengthen and possibly retain the current upward trend.
If this threshold is reached in addition to improving macro conditions and continuous ETF intake, Bitcoin could see renewed power, even in the absence of speculative enthusiasm.
Featured image made with Dall-e, graph of TradingView
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