American recession opportunities top 50% on kalshi

After President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ rate announcement on 2 April, the recession opportunities have enriched in leading economic trackers, making Bitcoin high alert. The prediction markets of Kalshi are now 53%, a jump of 8.1%compared to earlier estimates and the chances of polymarket have risen to 54%.

Shock rate and rising recession opportunities

After President Trump’s last step to impose higher tasks – rates for ‘Liberation Day’ aimed at important US trading partners, including a 34% levy on the import from China and 20% on those from the European Union – revised prog nuts of the multiple have revised their recession – probably.

Have been the opportunities updated In various respected institutions and platforms: in addition to Kalshi and Polymarket, Larry Summers has indicated a 50% chance, while JPMorgan gives the chance of 40%. According to a CNBC FED survey, the chance is 36%, with both Moody’s Analytics and Pimco predicting a 35% chance. In particular, Goldman Sachs has considerably revised his position, and now estimates the chance of 35%, an increase in a previous 20%.

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JPMorgan warns that these rates can lead to “an annual tax increase of $ 660 billion for Americans”, which may add 2% to domestic inflation. The risk of a knock-on effect is underlined by the relocation of consumer confidence data and the imminent prospect of retirement trading measures of partners such as Canada and the EU.

In his research memorandum of 30 March, Goldman Sachs offered a sobering prospect for 2025. According to the team: “We are now seeing a 12-month recession of 35%. The upgrade of our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent depreciation of the white home and a weakness of the civil servants of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the declarations of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the statements of the white statements, and statements of the statements of the white statements, and statements of the statements of the white statements, and explains. to indicate.

What this means for Bitcoin

Renowned Crypto trader Bob Loukas has recorded market sentiment on X on X and Writing: “I am starting to think that we are on our way to a recession or bear market, perhaps a milder, but it probably looks. […] We have to take it seriously. That said, I think it’s time to leave the habit of ‘buy the dip’ habit on which we leaned during the bullmarkt. […] It may not be a disaster, but too much focusing on potential profits can mean that they overlook real risks. […] Bonds seem like a good gamble, capital must flow somewhere. “

With regard to Bitcoin, Loukas underlines The difficult situation for investor with regard to Trump’s Pro-BTC policy: Bitcoin’s tricky instinct says it is struggling, but I can see that it keeps as a kind of digital gold, especially because the administration seems to want it to succeed, outside trade policy. Perhaps there is some bias in that last explanation. “

Aksel Kibar (@TechCharts), a chartered market technician and former fund manager, briefly confirmed Loukas’ position by commenting, “agreed”.

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In the meantime, LondonCryptoclub (@LDNCRYPTOCLUB) has brought new guidelines to the attention of UBS Global Wealth Management, which now expects the Federal Reserve to lower the rates with 75-100 BPS to the rest of 2025.

The analyst writes Via X: “This is a kind of key for Bitcoin. If the Fed treats induced inflation as ‘passing’ by rate [… ] and focuses on supporting growth, then real rates rather than lower […] And Bitcoin will fly. The financial circumstances are currently relaxed with lower dollars and yields (although the credit spreads keep an eye on). […] Bitcoin Front runs liquidity […] Ultimately, this all ends with the FED that is forced to be the liquidity providers of the last resort […] Bitcoin will end considerably higher this year. Only the path becomes a very volatile and turbulent. “

Macro analyst Alex Krüger (@kruergermacro) warned about the interplay between monetary relaxation and recession risk: “Fed cuts without recession are usually bullish. Fed cuts with recession are usually bearish. This was an important talk point in 2024.”

Powell’s speech: a crucial moment

In the light of the unexpected rates of President Trump, Friday’s planned comments by the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell have taken renewed urgency. Powell had previously indicated that monetary policy remains restrictive, given the persistence of inflation above the target of 2% of the FED. Nevertheless, rates introduce a potential double bond: higher costs for consumers who could further stimulate inflation, in addition to a resistance to economic growth that makes the prospects of the labor market more difficult.

Andy Brenner of Natalliance Securities described the speech as possibly ‘one of the most important Powell speeches in three years’. The Fed chair will speak at 11:25 am.

At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 83,197.

Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com