While Bitcoin hovers between $90,000 and $95,000, down more than 10% from its recent all-time high above $100,000, there is a growing divide between traders, who expect another decline based on technical analysis, and the long-term investors, who believe the bull run is far from over.
David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, which provides asset management services to crypto investors, shared this perspective. His company mainly works with wealthy individuals and counts Cardano CEO Charles Hoskinson among its clients.
“In the fourteen years that I have owned bitcoin, I have never seen such a dichotomy,” Siemer noted in an interview with Coin Bureau. “The traders are all worried and nervous and hedged, completely neutral or worse. And the long-term people are all super bullish,” he added.
Furthermore, Siemer believes there is a good chance Bitcoin will reach $200,000 this year and thinks it could eventually reach $1 million per coin, but not in the near future. He adds that many smart, well-connected people are also very optimistic, and that more significant developments are expected in the next six months than most people realize.
Developments coming
Siemer noted that several countries, including the US, Russia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and some European countries, are planning major steps to support crypto in the coming year. These steps are expected to benefit their private sector. Siemer also notes that trust in governments, such as in Japan and Singapore, makes crypto regulations there more effective.
He also highlighted that the growing success of US Bitcoin ETFs is driving global financial institutions to create new products to compete, such as multi-token yield funds. Siemer also said that US Bitcoin ETFs are beating global Bitcoin ETPs with high fees. He believes regulators will be supportive, and that the EU can make crypto rules more favorable.
The Bitcoin Reserve
Siemer believes there is a good chance that new strategic Bitcoin reserves will be created, and that several countries are likely to do so, even if the US does not. He said Wave is in discussions with seven U.S. states, including Texas, Ohio and Wyoming, about creating reserves.
As for the federal government, Siemer estimates a slightly better than 50-50 chance, since it already owns almost $19 billion in Bitcoin. He suggests that the government could simply hold onto this Bitcoin, which would be more acceptable than buying more of it.
The long-term outlook remains positive
Recently, Grayscale noted that Bitcoin’s price outlook remains “structurally bullish” despite temporary headwinds from macroeconomic data. Grayscale’s Head of Research noted that Bitcoin appears to be held back by the strength of the US dollar, which is rising due to more aggressive Fed policy and the threat of tariffs.
However, he believes that the recent setback in the crypto market could be short-lived as the US presidential inauguration approaches. He maintains a positive long-term outlook for crypto valuations.
