This article is available in Spanish.
Bitcoin could rise to $180,000 by 2025 if key cycle top indicators remain subdued, according to Matthew Sigel, head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck. Speak with podcast Host Natalie Brunell, Sigel outlined a clear four-year pattern in Bitcoin’s price action, which he believes has held through multiple market cycles.
Why $180,000 per Bitcoin seems plausible
Sigel explained that Bitcoin tends to outperform almost every other asset class for three years during each four-year halving cycle, followed by a deep correction in the fourth year. Referring to a drop that typically ranges from 60% to 80%, Sigel said this drop often occurs about two years after the BTC halving.
Since Bitcoin’s most recent halving took place in April 2024, Sigel sees 2024 and 2025 as potentially strong years. “That down year is usually the second year after the halving,” Sigel explains. “The Bitcoin halving took place in April this year. So 2024 [will be a] strong year, 2025 should be a strong year. I think unless something changes, 2026 would be a bad year.”
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Based on historical data, he recalled the smallest trough-to-peak appreciation in Bitcoin’s previous cycles, at around 2,000%. Even if that figure halves to 1,000%, Sigel points out that Bitcoin could rise from a low of around $18,000 to as high as $180,000 in the current cycle. “So I see upside to $180,000 this cycle, and I think that will probably happen next year,” Sigel added.
He also emphasized that Bitcoin’s volatility means the price could exceed or undershoot that number, but that $180,000 represents a plausible target for 2024 if the pattern holds and no major “red light” indicators emerge.
Sigel has outlined what he believes are the most important topping signals that traders should look for. The first concerns derivatives funding rates: if the annualized cost of holding bullish Bitcoin positions in leveraged markets rises above 10% for more than a few months, Sigel sees this as a red flag.
“Some of those indicators include funding rates. When the funding rate for Bitcoin exceeds 10% for more than a few months, that is usually a red light,” Sigel warned, explaining that recent market activity has reset the elevated funding rates: “[Last week’s] washout eliminated that too. So financing rates [are] not really flashing red.”
The second is the level of unrealized profits on the blockchain, where on-chain analysis can reveal whether market participants’ cost bases are so low that significant profit-taking could soon cause selling pressure. “We don’t see scary amounts of unrealized profits [yet],” Sigel noted.
Finally, he said anecdotal evidence of widespread leverage or speculation in the retail sector could also flash warning lights. He explained that if all these risk indicators were focused on a certain price level – for example, if Bitcoin reached $150,000 and these numbers point to a market top – he would be cautious. However, he said that if the price were to reach around $180,000 without these signals appearing, there could still be room for further appreciation.
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“If we get to $180,000 and none of those lights are flashing, we might let it run. “If all those lights are flashing and the price is $150,000, I’m not going to wait,” Sigel added.
Next BTC Cycle Predictions
He also examined Bitcoin’s longer-term growth potential by comparing it to the market capitalization of gold. Because about half of gold’s supply is used for industrial and jewelry purposes, he reasoned that the other half could be more directly compared to Bitcoin’s function as an investment and store of value.
If Bitcoin were to reach a valuation comparable to that half of gold’s market cap, Sigel thinks the price could move to around $450,000 per coin over the next cycle.
From an even more forward-looking perspective, he described VanEck’s long-term model, in which global central banks could eventually hold Bitcoin as part of their reserves, even if the weighting is only 2%. Since gold makes up about 18% of global central bank reserves, Sigel assumes Bitcoin’s share would be much smaller in comparison.
He also factored in the prospect that Bitcoin could one day serve as a settlement currency for global trade, possibly between emerging economic alliances such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), significantly boosting its valuation could increase. higher. In VanEck’s calculations, Bitcoin could reach $3 million per coin by 2050:
“We also assume that Bitcoin will be used as a settlement currency for global trade, most likely between BRICS countries. By 2050, we will reach $3 million per coin, which represents a compound annual growth rate of approximately 16%.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $107,219.
Featured image from YouTube / Natalie Brunell, chart from TradingView.com
