- Bitcoin was trading around $96,000 at the time of writing.
- Indicators strongly suggest the price will rise to $100,000.
Bitcoins [BTC] Recent price movements have sparked widespread interest as the cryptocurrency consolidates within a tight range below $100,000.
Analysts suggest that this period of trading within a certain range is a necessary pause after a significant rally, allowing the market to stabilize before the next breakout.
Consolidation or preparation?
Bitcoin’s price action on the daily chart revealed a consolidation phase between $95,000 and $98,000, with reduced volatility indicating indecision in the market.
However, technical indicators reflected an overall bullish structure.
Moving averages remained firmly in a golden cross pattern, with the 50-day moving average remaining above the 200-day moving average, underscoring continued bullish momentum.
Source: TradingView
The Bollinger Bands have tightened, which usually precedes a sharp directional move.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 64.76, close to overbought territory but still with room for additional upside potential.
The parabolic SAR dots, positioned below the candles, further strengthen the upward momentum.
MVRV ratio and foreign exchange reserves
On-chain data provided additional context for Bitcoin’s consolidation. The MVRV ratio, which measures the market valuation compared to the realized price, was almost 2.7 at the time of writing.
While this level is not yet at an extremely high level, it indicates that Bitcoin is approaching overvaluation, which is a potential warning sign for short-term investors. Historically, a ratio above three has often preceded periods of profit-taking and price corrections.
Exchange reserves, according to data from CryptoQuantcontinue to decline, a bullish indicator reflecting reduced selling pressure from holders.
The trend suggests that investors are choosing to keep their Bitcoin off the exchanges, which is a sign of confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.
Source: CryptoQuant
Market sentiment: derivatives and accumulation
Bitcoin Funding Rates on the major exchanges have turned positive, reflecting bullish sentiment in the derivatives market.
Traders appeared willing to pay a premium for long positions, signaling confidence in further price gains. This optimism is further supported by on-chain data showing a continued accumulation of whale addresses.
Large-scale investors have increased their holdings, reinforcing the narrative of long-term confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
Source: CryptoQuant
Retail activity, on the other hand, has declined, suggesting larger investors are driving the current rally. This divergence often adds stability to the price action, as whale accumulation typically supports higher price levels.
Outlook: Bitcoin to $100K
Bitcoin’s consolidation is a healthy phase in its market cycle, laying a foundation for a potential breakout to $100,000.
A move above $98,000, supported by increased trading volume, could confirm the resumption of the uptrend.
However, investors should remain cautious of sudden spikes in foreign exchange reserves or an excessive rise in the MVRV ratio, which could signal a reversal or correction.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2024-25
Despite these risks, the broader market structure remains favorable.
As Bitcoin digests recent gains, it appears well positioned for further upside, with strong technical and on-chain indicators supporting the case for a breakout.
