Journalist
Posted:
- BTC’s ‘extreme greed’ reached 2020 highs, which preceded a 50% price drop.
- The markets had placed a high price on the likelihood of BTC rising above $100,000.
Bitcoins [BTC] The $100,000 target has pushed the market to 2020’s “extreme greed” levels, which preceded a 50% price drop.
According to data from CryptoQuant, BTC’s Fear and Greed Index (FGI) hit a 4.5-year high of 94.
Source: CryptoQuant
Interestingly, the current trend mirrored the 2020 pattern. The ‘extreme greed’ level of 94 was reached in November 2020.
Three months later (February 2021), BTC fell 20% and extended the decline to 50% by mid-2021. But before the downside, it pumped 250% in three months.
Market prices above $100,000
It is also worth noting that after the 250% decline in the first half of 2021, BTC has rallied 120% to reach a cycle top of $69,000 in the second half of 2021.
Perhaps this is why most cycle analysts expect a likely cooldown in early or late 2025. One of them, Alex Kruger, echoed the same outlook and said,
“In 2021, the top signals started rolling in February.”
Will the pattern affect BTC between now and early or late 2025?
Source: Kalshi
At the time of writing, the prediction markets are pricing BTC above $100,000. According to Kalshi, the chances The number of BTC reaching $100,000 or $150,000 by the end of the year was 81% and 10%.
For its part, the asset manager VanEck projected that the cryptocurrency could reach a cycle high of $180,000.
The company cited the pro-BTC regulatory environment and post-2020 election phase of +10% funding rates. Part of the BTC report from mid-November read:
“We expect another period of high performance, reminiscent of the post-2020 election phase, when sustained funding rates above 10% delivered a 260% gain in 186 days. Our price target of $180,000 remains plausible.”
However, the founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju projected a conservative cycle high of $141,000 and a 2024 target of $112,000, based on the realized cap valuation.
He noted that the market is not yet overheated. In 2020 and 2021, BTC reached the top after hitting the upper band of the realized cap.
Source: CryptoQuant
In short, the market expected BTC to rise above $100,000, as illustrated by the increased level of ‘extreme greed’. However, any potential top signal could become apparent in early 2025.
