On 29th October, the largest hack in crypto’s history took Bitcoin to a low near $76,200. A few days later, on 5th November, an AI-driven tech crash spilled into crypto. The Nasdaq 100 fell by 6.4%, while semiconductor stocks tumbled by 12%.
This chaos set off leveraged liquidations of roughly $1.1 billion and pushed Bitcoin’s price below $74,000.
Two different shocks, a historical Binance breach, and an AI token sell-off. Though they seem unrelated on the surface, this time they were actually the catalyst for the same event. What Bitcoin saw was a surge in speculative positioning, but what the king coin did not see was a buyer.
Bitcoin’s resilience fooled everyone
The market’s first take on the Binance hack was that crypto had passed a test. Bitcoin fell by about 6% from its 28th October close — a fraction of the 15% to 39% drawdowns after the controversies surrounding Celsius, FTX, BlockFi, and Bybit.
Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto,
What we find most encouraging is how the market handled the worst of it. The largest hack in crypto’s history caused a far smaller drawdown than past crises; the protocols kept running, and none of the structural drivers broke.
Unfortunately, institutional resilience is not retail demand. The market simply treated a smaller slump as evidence of Bitcoin’s underlying strength. However, whether anyone wanted to buy Bitcoin [BTC] was a separate question, one the hack never answered.
Still, institutional strength hasn’t eased the feeling of dread felt by many retail investors. And, a major factor can explain why.
What’s scaring the buyers off
The most important signal is what happened after the liquidations: Nothing. Bitget Wallet’s analysts put it plainly that the leverage reset “has cleared some speculative excess, but is yet to address the underlying demand problem.”
Looking at the data, one can see why. Most importantly, the ETF flows changed drastically. There were $2.6 billion worth of inflows in September 2026, which turned into $290 million of net outflows in October. Currently, U.S ETF holders sit underwater below their cost basis of $82K.
As 21Shares’ research report noted,
How ETF holders behave below breakeven remains the key tell for November.
Also, stablecoin supply has not been moving outside the $305 billion zone, a sure sign that liquidity is sitting still.
Finally, one cannot forget the fallout caused by the Binance hack.
When the exchange reopened withdrawals, the queue moved fast. The exchange processed $4.65 billion against $1.01 billion of deposits in under ten hours; net outflows reached about $5.8 billion over 24 hours!
Each of these factors may not matter when seen separately, but when read together, they describe the same thing — capital leaving or sitting still. The leverage is gone, and the bid is not there to replace it.
Analysts have landed on the same conclusion
For 21Shares, $73,000 is the 200-day moving average, and “the line that would reopen the bear-market debate.”
Bitget analysts told AMBCrypto that Bitcoin must hold the $73K–$74K range.
The 73,000-74,000 range is now the zone Bitcoin needs to hold. Stabilization would require more balanced derivatives positioning and sustained positive ETF flows. Reclaiming and holding $80,000 would signal stronger demand, while a decisive break below $73,000 could expose $68,000. If $68,000 also fails to hold, the selloff would suggest more than a temporary leverage flush.
When the same number pops up again and again, it stops being a coincidence and starts pointing to a pattern — that Bitcoin is either in a temporary flush or at the start of something deeper.
If buyers do return, Bitcoin can comfortably start holding $80,000, and stronger demand would emerge as a result. Getting back above $81,000 to $82,000 would finally put the largest holder cohorts back in profit.
What does recovery actually need?
Both reports are similarly aligned on what won’t fix Bitcoin’s buyer problem: Macro relief without demand. In fact, Bitget’s analysts asserted,
A durable Bitcoin recovery will depend on improving liquidity and Spot demand, not macro relief alone.
Matt Mena framed the same requirement as a four-part checklist.
We are watching four things into November: Bitcoin holding $76,000 to $78,000 and reclaiming $80,000 to $82,000, Binance completing withdrawals and proving its reserves, credit spreads, oil and long-end yields, and whether ETF flows return. If those turn, the setup for the final weeks of the year remains constructive.
Notice what’s on both lists: ETF flows, liquidity, Spot demand, and positioning. All of them are things buyers have to do.
There is naturally no doubt that macro factors can move Bitcoin’s price. If everything aligns, a rally can happen tomorrow. However, seasoned investors know that this will never be the same as rebuilding buyer interest.
Ultimately, a macro relief rally would leave Bitcoin’s demand problem exactly where it was.
It’s not the whole picture…
The calendar offers a boost for Bitcoin regardless of which way the ball drops, as December’s Fed expectations hinge on U.S CPI and PPI readings. For the uninitiated, hotter readings will reinforce rate-hike expectations, and a softer core inflation will trigger a relief rally.
However, Bitget’s analysts draw a line between the two outcomes, noting,
This week’s inflation data adds another test. Hotter readings could reinforce December rate-hike expectations, while softer core inflation could trigger a relief rally. But a durable Bitcoin recovery will depend on improving liquidity and spot demand, not macro relief alone.
Basically, a relief rally can be classed as a macro event, not a demand event. The inflation print can only deliver the former, and the latter can only come about by real flows.
AI’s “wobble,” Bitcoin’s slump
Here, it’s also worth being precise about what the 5th November AI crash tells us. 21Shares calls it,
A renewed wobble in artificial intelligence (AI) equities pulled the Nasdaq-100 down almost 4%.
That’s the mechanism in a nutshell. Even this time, crypto’s fall was the result of trading alongside a risk asset.
Still, if Bitcoin’s move below $74,000 was driven by the AI wipeout, then the absence of a bid is more telling. Eventually, we come back to the same problem of missing buyers.
What does the future hold?
Leverage has been reset twice in a week — Once by Binance’s $6.3 billion hack, once by an AI shocker. And the buyer bid has hardly appeared either time.
That’s what makes $73,000 a critical level to watch. If buyers return and hold this level, they could help Bitcoin reclaim $80,000. This would also imply that BTC’s demand problem is cyclical, not permanent.
However, a break below $73,000 will hint at — and a failure at $68,000 will confirm — that Bitcoin’s breakdown is structural. Bitcoin’s recovery hinges on a single level, and the lack of buyers has never been felt stronger.
Final Summary
- A record $6.3B Binance hack and the 5th November AI-led rout both cleared Bitcoin’s leverage, but neither brought buyers back.
- The $73K-level will decide what’s next for Bitcoin.