Ethereum had its best quarterly increase since the beginning of the year in Q3.
The 70.8% increase that occurred in the third quarter outperformed the previous high, Q3 2025, which saw a 66.55% increase, and lifted Ethereum [ETH] higher than where it ended after two weak quarters.
This contrast is significant, as Ethereum experienced a decline of 29.26% in Q1 and then a second decline of 25.28% in Q2. The 13.20% average quarterly return according to CoinGlass data shows that this rebound was significantly stronger than normal.
However, there are indications that the quarterly returns may be less impressive in Q4 for Ethereum. The median return for the fourth quarter has decreased to 0.36% compared to the historic average return of 16.97%.
Therefore, sustaining the recovery will depend on whether strong Q3 momentum can carry into the new quarter.
Whales increase ETH exposure
Ethereum’s strong Q3 performance has attracted the attention of whales. Large holders appear to be adjusting their positioning ahead of further price increases for Ethereum.
As a result of this, a wallet associated with Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin transferred 133,298 ETH, valued at $356.2 million, into a new wallet.
Although this transaction has not moved directly from the wallet to an exchange and thus does not show direct selling pressure. Instead, it shows significant capital moving into ETH after its 70.8% quarterly increase.
Meanwhile, another whale created a $40.6 million ETH long and also a $33.62 million Bitcoin short. These trades seem to target an outperforming ETH versus a weakly performing crypto market.
Therefore, they are based upon the strong performance of ETH over Bitcoin [BTC], which closed at 42.71% in Q3.
Together, transactions indicate that large holders are beginning to realign themselves as they consider their next move. However, these trades will ultimately depend on whether additional transfers occur and if they make any changes to their positions.
Can ETH extend its lead over BTC?
Ethereum’s recent outperformance in Q3 is now being tested against Bitcoin. The ETH to BTC ratio has moved upward from 0.0316 to a high of 0.0325 before retreating. Buyers supported 0.0319 and were able to bring the ratio back up towards 0.0323.
This matters because if the ratio continues its move upwards, it will indicate that investors are still favoring ETH instead of BTC after the quarterly rally. Derivatives positioning adds leverage to that preference, with Hyperliquid holding more than $3.1 billion in ETH Open Interest.
Funding remains mildly positive near 0.00125% hourly, suggesting longs dominate without clear signs of extreme crowding. Thus, continuing to buy ETH may allow the current increase of the ETH to BTC ratio to continue.
Conversely, less activity on the Spot market could lead to reversing the trend and potentially decrease ETH’s relative performance.
Final Summary
- Ethereum enters Q4 with strong momentum after a record 70.8% Q3 gain, but sustaining demand remains crucial.
- ETH whale positioning and a rising ETH/BTC ratio support continued relative strength, while weaker demand could pressure the recovery.