Open interest distribution
The $70,000 strike has more open contracts than any other, and the calls there are now deep in the money.
Strijers said 55% of the $9.4 billion in call bets due for expiry are in the money. Puts, meanwhile, are mostly worthless right now. Put it together, and about a third of the entire $15.9 billion book is currently in the money.
Being in the money means being in profit – an option has intrinsic value because the market price is on the favorable side of its strike. For a call, the underlying trades above the strike; for a put, it trades below the strike.
Deribit’s Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot said the distribution of open interest across strike prices suggests a price floor around $75,000.
“Open interest is heavily concentrated at the $85k, $90k, $95k, and $100k call strikes, underscoring the ongoing influence of large 85k/90k/95k/100k call condor blocks that are now coming directly into play as spot trades near $86k,” Péquignot said. “On the put side, defensive structures are firmly anchored at $60k, $70k, and $75k, creating a multi-layered support floor.”
What happens on the expiry day?
Friday’s expiry could breed some market turbulence, eventually resetting the trading range for BTC’s spot price.
That’s because, as per Strijers, the expiry will clear out dealer-related hedging.