Ethereum is trading just below $1,900, and analyst Benjamin Cowen believes the next major test for ETH may not come immediately. While July has historically been a strong month for crypto during midterm years, Cowen expects the August-to-October period to be far more important in deciding whether Ethereum follows a recovery pattern similar to 2022 or a deeper correction like 2018.
Bullish Scenario: ETH Could Rally Toward $2,000–$2,100
According to him, Ethereum could continue higher through July, especially because midterm-year July has historically delivered strong crypto performance. ETH also does not necessarily need Bitcoin to bottom first. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin made a lower low while Ethereum formed a higher low, showing that ETH can sometimes find a bottom earlier.
In the bullish scenario, ETH could move toward the $2,000–$2,100 area before facing its next major test. If Ethereum can hold around $1,800 or higher during September and October, Cowen says he would become more confident about its recovery.
However, the ETH/BTC pair remains a key signal. Ethereum has repeatedly tested its bull-market support band roughly every three months and has failed to sustain previous breakouts. He is also watching ETH’s rejection near the 20-month moving average against Bitcoin, which could remain a major resistance level.
Bearish Scenario: ETH Could Fall 40% or More
Cowen’s biggest concern is a renewed weakness window between August and October. If Bitcoin gives back its July gains or moves lower again, Ethereum could be dragged down with it.
A moderate bearish scenario would involve a roughly 40% decline from a future high near $2,000–$2,100, potentially pushing ETH toward the $1,200–$1,300 range and possibly below its April 2025 low.
Cowen does not expect an 80% collapse like Ethereum saw in 2018, but he warns the current market could be weaker than 2022 because social participation remains extremely low. Current social risk is around 0.25, similar to July 2018 and well below 2022 levels near 0.5.
What’s Next for ETH?
While Cowen expects volatility between August and October, several analysts remain optimistic if Ethereum holds key support.
Michaël van de Poppe said ETH is preparing for another leg higher, saying that holding the $1,800 support zone could trigger a fresh continuation upward.
Daan Crypto Trades is watching $1,750 as the critical level for bulls. He notes this area marked both the February low and the higher-low structure that kicked off Ethereum’s major 2025 rally, while identifying $2,100 as the next major resistance.
Meanwhile, Ted Pillows says Ethereum has reclaimed its six-month downtrend, with the weekly MACD turning bullish. He also noted continued institutional buying, including Tom Lee, adding that if $1,850 holds, ETH could be positioned for another 10% rally.
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