Bitcoin price maintains its bullish momentum from the previous day. Today it crossed the $27,000 threshold, a level not seen since August 31. Notably, BTC yesterday recorded its first green weekly closing candle in five weeks. At the time of writing, Bitcoin price has reached an intraday high of $27,267.
Why did the Bitcoin price rise today?
One key indicator that has caught the attention of analysts is the rapid increase in Open Interest. DaanCrypto, a well-known figure in the crypto space, commented on Bitcoin’s Open Interest: “Bitcoin Open Interest has increased like crazy in the past few hours. An increase of +$850 million in hours.” According to him, this could be a problem if the spot bid disappears, which could lead to a full backlash similar to before.
“This would then be due to underwater positions coming in close to the top. If the spot bid remains, these positions are of course fine. Open Interest is now back to post-Grayscale pump levels,” said Daan, further noting the resilience of the spot premium at the moment: “Longs are comfortable as long as there is a spot bid.”
Maartuun, the community manager at CryptoQuant Netherlands, also emphasizes the rapid increase in Open Interest: “Faten your safety belts. The Open Interest is going crazy about this escape attempt. It is up $600 million (7%).”
Interestingly, Coinglass data shows that at the time of writing, short liquidations for BTC remain modest, with only around $20 million worth of shorts being liquidated. At the time of writing, OI shot up further, increasing by almost $1 billion (from $11.04 to $12.03 billion).
Renowned analyst @52kskew emphasized the trading behavior on Binance: “The majority are aggressively chasing shorts, as far as I can see so far. Binance Open Interest: Binance perp OI starting to pick up again with minimal price difference ~ big move brewing. OI up and insignificant change in perp delta (positions open to price). Takers still selling aggressively at the price, bulls want to see a constant cap on the bid chasing here. $26.7K crucial price for direction.”
Ali Martinez, another analyst, orphan towards Bitcoin’s 3-day chart and recorded a buy signal from the TD Sequential yesterday. “An increase in $BTC buying pressure could push prices towards the mid or upper end of the channel – targeting $28,000 or $31,000. Still, look at the TD Risk Line at $24,500. It is the main point of invalidation.”
From a macro perspective, noted analyst Ted (@tedtalksmacro) indicated a correlation between USD liquidity and Bitcoin price movements: “If you can track/predict USD liquidity, you have a good idea of where the price is going.” He then highlighted the difference between the rise in USD liquidity and BTC’s previous stagnation, highlighting the recent shift that could be caused by returning liquidity.
Monthly closing will be crucial
As NewsBTC reported, September is historically one of the worst months of the year for the Bitcoin price. However, this year could be different if BTC continues the trend of the past few days.
Rekt Capital marked the potential significance of the upcoming monthly candle close for Bitcoin in a recent tweet, stating: “The upcoming monthly candle close will be crucial.” According to the analyst, Bitcoin often produces long upward moves as it converts old monthly supports into new resistances.
Simply put, an upward wick on a candlestick chart indicates price levels at which Bitcoin traded but did not close over a period of time. A long fuse suggests a strong rejection of those higher price levels. This could mean that while buyers tried to push the price up during the month, sellers had pushed the price back down by the end, leaving a long ‘fuse’ on the candlestick.
Rekt Capital suggests that these wicks can extend beyond the candle body by up to +8%. The analyst notes that if the monthly candle close produces an upside wick of +7% above the ~$27,100 level, it could mean the price could move past the weekly lower high.
This could be a positive sign if the monthly close remains above $27,100, indicating this is a support level. However, if the price closes the month below $27,100 after reaching a higher level, it could confirm $27,100 as new resistance, indicating that the recent price move could only be a temporary upward rally.
At the time of writing, BTC was at $27,241.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
