Crypto analyst AliCharts says a potential US-Japan currency intervention could be one of the biggest macro signals for Bitcoin in 2026. US officials recently ran dollar-yen rate checks, a step that often comes before direct market action.
Rate checks do not mean intervention is certain. But historically, this is how authorities test the waters before stepping in.
Why Coordinated Action Matters for Bitcoin
If the US acts, it would sell dollars and buy yen to stabilize Japan’s currency. Japan has tried defending the yen alone before. It slowed the slide briefly, but the trend returned each time.
Coordinated action is different. The analyst pointed to the 1985 Plaza Accord and the 1998 Asian currency crisis as moments when joint moves actually worked.
“When the US steps in alongside Japan, the message is stronger, and markets listen,” he said.
A weaker dollar tends to push capital toward alternative assets. Bitcoin has moved opposite to the dollar over time, which is why traders are watching closely.
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Yen Carry Trade Could Hit Crypto First
There is a risk traders should not ignore.
A huge amount of global money is tied to the yen carry trade, where investors borrow cheap yen to buy risk assets like crypto. If the yen strengthens too fast, those positions unwind. Investors sell to cover.
This happened in mid-2024. A surprise Bank of Japan rate hike sent the yen higher and triggered a broad selloff. Bitcoin dropped hard in days.
The analyst warned that short-term yen strength can pressure crypto, even if a weaker dollar helps Bitcoin over the longer run.
Arthur Hayes: Watch the Fed Balance Sheet!
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes shared a similar view. He called the setup “very bullish” for Bitcoin if it leads to new dollar liquidity.
Hayes said to watch the Fed’s weekly H.4.1 report. A rise in “foreign currency denominated assets” would confirm balance sheet expansion.
Current data shows no expansion yet. The Fed balance sheet sits at $6.58 trillion and is still shrinking by around $75 billion per month.
Bitcoin trades at $87,706 while the dollar-yen rate moves between 153 and 155.
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FAQs
Bitcoin often rises when the dollar weakens, as investors look for assets that hedge against currency depreciation and expanding liquidity.
The yen carry trade uses cheap yen to buy risk assets. A sudden yen rise forces selling, which can cause sharp short-term drops in Bitcoin.
Yes. Rapid yen strengthening can trigger carry trade unwinds, pressuring crypto prices before longer-term dollar weakness benefits Bitcoin.
Fed balance sheet growth signals new dollar liquidity, which has historically been bullish for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
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