Is Litecoin’s pre-halving rally underway?

• An analyst predicted a remarkable increase for the next Litecoin halving.
• The technical perspective matched the projection as new addresses peaked.

With 64 days to go Litecoins [LTC] third halving, optimism about the currency’s value has grown. The event, which first took place on August 25, 2015, was done to ensure that demand for the coin increased while LTC issuance decreased.

The first halving occurred at a block height of 840,000. The second, which produced 12.5 LTC for miners, took place at a block height of 1.68 million. But there was a similar impact on the LTC value prior to the halving.

The calm before the storm

On both occasions the price of the coin increased significantly a few weeks before the D-day. Now, analyst Michaël van de Poppe has said a repeat could be in the works.

According to Poppe, LTC could hold strongly around the $83-$86 range before shooting above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).

#Litecoin provide solid consolidation before crossing the 200-week MA and EMA.

I’d rather see it stay above $83-86 and we’ll most likely get the pre-halving rally from mid-June to the end of July. pic.twitter.com/SzOhuFa3G6

— Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 29, 2023

Looking back at LTC historically, this view may not be surprising. Because before the second halving on August 5, 2019 in May of the same year, Litecoin had a great pre-halving rally; likewise the first.

So, what are the chances of recurrence? According to the daily LTC/USD chart, On-Balance Volume (OBV) has increased to 21.24 million. The OBV is an indicator for measuring bearish or bullish divergence based on the direction of an asset.

Litecoin accumulation is increasinge

In a trading range, an increasing OBV suggested that accumulation took place. Since this was the case with LTC, it meant that an upside breakout could not be far off. The opposite happens when the indicator moves downwards.

When considering direction, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) showed that buyers had not yet solidified their authority.

While the +DMI (green) was higher than the -DMI (red), the Average Directional Index (ADX)’s hesitation to give strength to LTC’s price action helped the inference.

Source: TradingView

When the ADX (yellow) moves above 25, it usually implies strong directional movement. But if it is below the value, it means that the direction strength is weak.

In addition to accumulation and price action, IntoTheBlock revealed that the month of May favored the “lighter” Bitcoin [BTC].

Between March 30 and the time of writing, approximately 1.5 million addresses have been added to the Litecoin cohort. This brought the total number of LTC addresses to 8.5 million.

Litecoin had a strong month. The total number of addresses with a balance has increased more strongly since the end of April and we now see almost 8.5 million LTC addresses with a balance!#Litecoin https://t.co/beYBnYLzm8 pic.twitter.com/seMsdiJEup

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) May 30, 2023

How much are 1,10,100 LTCs worth today?

This rise in address count meant that these unique addresses have a balance and traded the native coin on the network.

While this will drive up demand, time will tell if the impending drop in supply will have a positive effect on the LTC price