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In an analysis shared on “How can anyone be bearish here?! BTC broke the weekly downtrend and closed above key levels, and some people are still asking for less than $40,000?! Sorry bears, you clearly missed the fundamental changes of the last two weeks,” he says.
#1 Extension of the refund period for Mt. GoxBitcoin
The defunct fair Mt. Gox applied for a change in the repayment period, which was approved by the court. The new deadline for repaying the remaining creditors is now set for October 31, 2025, a full year later than the previously scheduled October 2024. This extension removes immediate selling pressure on the market of approximately 44,905 BTC (approximately $2.9 billion) , which are expected to flood the market.
#2 China’s economic stimulus
China will issue $325 billion in bonds to stimulate its economy. At the same time, crypto exchange OKX has launched a fully licensed trading platform in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), offering Chinese investors a legal opportunity to engage in cryptocurrency trading under the jurisdiction of the UAE. Patric H. predicts: “Chinese money will enter the crypto industry in the fourth quarter.”
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#3 Declining Bitcoin Exchange Reserves
Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to dwindle as institutional investors and whales accumulate the cryptocurrency at unprecedented rates. This trend indicates a shortage of supply on the stock exchanges, which, in combination with increasing demand, could lead to a supply shock. “Ultimately, this will cause a supply shock, which will lead to higher prices in the long term,” the analyst notes.
#4 Increase in Bitcoin whale accumulation
On-chain data shows new Bitcoin whales are amassing assets like never before. Ki Young Ju, CEO and Founder of CryptoQuant, recently commented: “The current market volatility is just a play on the futures market. Right whales move the market through spot trading and OTC markets. That is why on-chain data is crucial.”
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He added that it is unlikely that these new whales will be sold until significant liquidity from private investors enters the market. “Look how fiercely the new whales are stacking Bitcoin; this market has never seen such accumulation,” he pointed out. In particular, the lack of correlation with US spot ETF inflows suggests that these could be strategic institutional accumulations.
#5 Trump leads the polls
Political forecasts indicate that former US President Donald Trump will gain popularity in swing states in the run-up to the upcoming elections. According to the latest data from Polymarket, Trump is expected to win all seven key swing states. Patric H. reminds readers: “Trump is pro-crypto; Elon Musk will lead a Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).”
#6 S&P 500 as a pioneer
The S&P 500 index is trading at an all-time high, indicating historically positive momentum for Bitcoin and crypto. “There hasn’t been a time in history when Bitcoin and the altcoin market couldn’t catch up to the S&P 500’s performance,” notes Patric H., dismissing skepticism with: “But ‘this time is different’… yeah, Certainly. .” The correlation between traditional markets and cryptocurrencies suggests that bullish trends in stocks could spill over into the Bitcoin and crypto sectors.
#7 Seasonality
Historically, the fourth quarter (Q4) has been the most bullish period for Bitcoin, especially in the halving years. “Bitcoin and the crypto market tend to outperform all asset classes in a halving year,” the analyst argues.
Supporting these fundamental reasons, the technical analysis also paints a positive picture for Bitcoin. Patric H. highlights that Bitcoin has closed above its weekly downtrend line, signaling a possible reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. Furthermore, the cryptocurrency remains firmly above the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a critical support level. Also, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has made a bullish cross for the first time since April, which is often interpreted as a buy signal.
“Yes, there will be withdrawals every now and then. But as of now, dips are for buying purposes as the market structure has clearly shifted from a downtrend to an uptrend,” concludes Patric.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $68,397.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
